Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.601913 1.697060 1.796725 1.909226 2.033076 2.165702 2.319054
2025-11-30 1.468848 1.602094 1.748263 1.921694 2.123433 2.352677 2.635767
2025-12-07 1.362327 1.514002 1.685474 1.895854 2.150096 2.451562 2.842572
2025-12-14 1.269497 1.430371 1.616346 1.850375 2.141675 2.498959 2.981375
2025-12-21 1.208783 1.378413 1.578401 1.835834 2.165015 2.581677 3.166331
2025-12-28 1.173803 1.353899 1.570261 1.854983 2.228903 2.717513 3.431068
2026-01-04 1.128152 1.313046 1.538526 1.840575 2.246020 2.790116 3.612364
2026-01-11 1.102915 1.295693 1.534473 1.860378 2.308173 2.926734 3.897801
2026-01-18 1.072770 1.270271 1.518167 1.862017 2.344210 3.027661 4.138525
2026-01-25 1.058819 1.264551 1.526544 1.896481 2.427252 3.201975 4.513376
2026-02-01 1.018316 1.222515 1.484857 1.859368 2.404397 3.214831 4.623132
2026-02-08 0.977912 1.179099 1.439482 1.814635 2.367223 3.202074 4.686339
2026-02-15 0.952151 1.155113 1.420562 1.808106 2.389011 3.287381 4.940097
2026-02-22 0.934217 1.140905 1.414323 1.819324 2.438277 3.420998 5.301587
2026-03-01 0.905614 1.111174 1.385304 1.795589 2.431463 3.460719 5.489479
2026-03-08 0.872796 1.074622 1.345385 1.753771 2.393393 3.443987 5.562613
2026-03-15 0.851275 1.052811 1.325284 1.740391 2.399561 3.503464 5.799126
2026-03-22 0.840929 1.045964 1.325927 1.758010 2.456590 3.656929 6.259414
2026-03-29 0.821644 1.026037 1.307061 1.744754 2.461498 3.716032 6.520895
2026-04-05 0.812888 1.020512 1.308641 1.762973 2.520061 3.879613 7.054787
2026-04-12 0.799700 1.008280 1.299931 1.764481 2.549843 3.990818 7.484936
2026-04-19 0.795725 1.008946 1.310065 1.796165 2.634020 4.217044 8.263346
2026-04-26 0.773745 0.983212 1.280165 1.762044 2.598949 4.198688 8.376292